[Warning] DOF P3 update schedule #165
Description
Describe the warning
@SarahHudson-SANDAG noted a large difference in the year 2020 age 85+ population totals between the v24 and v23.1 Estimates releases. The issue was traced back to the use of the California Department of Finance P3 for regional age/sex/ethnicity control totals. Estimates v23.1 used the Vintage 2023 (2023.7.19) P3 while Estimates v24 used the Vintage 2025 (2025.4.25) P3. See results below for all P3 releases currently stored at SANDAG.
We can see there was a major update made to the year 2020 85+ population in the Vintage 2024 (2024.9.23). The descriptions from the California Department of Finance suggest that the Vintage 2023 (2023.7.19) was released in December 2022 and likely incorporated some of but not all decennial census data due to limited availability at the time, remembering that the release of the 2020 decennial was late due to COVID-19. The subsequent Vintage 2024 (2024.9.23) release would be the first release to make full use of the decennial census and better reflect the 85+ population for the year 2020. Note that the Census Estimates maintained at SANDAG show the 85+ year 2020 population aligned with the Vintage 2024 (2024.9.23) and Vintage 2025 (2025.4.25) P3 releases.
This brings up an interesting point in regards to the use of the P3 product for regional age/sex/ethnicity controls. The product is not always released on an annual basis and, therefore, may reflect stale data. We should explore alternatives to the P3 product such as the Census Estimates (see https://github.com/SANDAG/Census-Estimates), synthetically generating using the ACS 5-year Detailed Tables, or using the ACS PUMS. Each will have pros and cons.